Another Call for a Bear Market Crash

Pundit have called 30 of the last 4 major bear markets correctly.  Some people are again calling for a bear market beginning tomorrow, Monday 12/15/25.

Do I know if a bear market is coming?   No.   Am I prepared for a bear market?   I think so.

Currently, are taxable accounts are invested a stock and bond portfolio designed to generate regular monthly income.   Our tax advantaged accounts are similarly invested.    If the market continues to go up, our account will participate in the gains.

If the market drops significantly, I expect to still generate about the same amount of regular monthly income.  Since, we have not have a drop since changing our investment strategy, we shall see if this work.   In addition, I will use some of the cash to buy into market index funds, such as SCHB, SCHG, VOO and MGK, to benefit from buying at discount.

Hopefully, the new strategy will insure us against major financial suffering with a significant bear market.

Disclosure:  I received no compensation from  Schwab nor Vanguard for mention of their index ETFs.

 

For more on New Beginnings, check back every Sunday for a new segment.

This is not financial nor investment advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Could've, Should've Held the Winner Stocks

I've been reviewing my investing history and saw a few big misses.   My mistake, I sold the big winners after small gains.  I kept the losers, waiting for them to recover, which very few did.

What would have happened if I kept my winners.  I've owned and, unfortunately, sold a number of long term winners.   I have two examples.    

The first one is Google, ticker symbol GOOGL.    I bought 100 shares of GOOGL in 2004 for $8000.   If I had held the shares until today, those shares would be worth a little over $1 million  or 126X.    Of course, I didn't hold it until today.  I don't know for sure, but I probably sold the position around $9000 later in 2004.    A good profit, but not even close to the million I could have had.

The second one is Apple, ticker symbol AAPL.   I bought a 100 shares at 90 in 1990, right before the Desert Storm, which caused a drop in the market and AAPL.    When the shares recovered about a year later, I sold for a small profit.    If I had held those share until today, I would have about $6.5 million or 722X.

Instead, I probably only ended up with $2000-$3000 profit at the most.

Could've, Should've.

On the other hand, my spouse bought GOOGL in 2013 and AAPL in 2016 and held.   She is up 14X and 10X respectively and has more than exceeded her losses.

Of course, every time I sold, it was due to fear of an upcoming crash.   2004 was right after the dot com crash and 1990 was right after the crash of 1987.  And I would have had to ride through the subsequent bear markets of 2008, 2020, and 2022.

Recall also, that some individual stocks either take a long time or never recover.   For example, Cisco, ticker symbol CSCO, just passed it's all time high of 2000 this week.

It's too late for me.  My solution for my kids is to invest in the S&P 500 index or a Large Cap Growth Stock index which naturally stays invested in winners.   Then not sell for 40 years.   Hopefully, that will result in a million dollar return when they retire.

For more on Reflections and Musings, check back every  Saturday for a new segment.

This is not financial nor investing advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Exceeded Out Of Pocket (OOP) Maximum for Health Insurance

The bad news is I am over my out of pocket (OOP) maximum health care insurance cost for this year.  The good news is I am over my OOP health care insurance cost maximum for this year.

The reason for the bad news?   I am having more health care issues than usual that require medical attention.  When I was younger, I hardly ever went to the doctor, despite having excellent medical insurance. Sometimes I would go 5 years without seeing a doctor, despite being active in sports like rugby.  Since retiring, I have had more reasons to seek medical attention, due primarily due to treatment of coronary heart disease and  age related issues, such as joint pain and arthritis..

The reason for the good news?  Once I meet my OOP maximum, 100% of my medical costs are paid by insurance, including copays and coinsurance.   My cost is now $0 for the rest of the year.   As a result, I am scheduling appointments for some of the non urgent medical issues that I would do in future, right now.    That way I can get an earlier evaluation this year, for no cost to me.

This is the second year in a row that I have exceeded my OOP maximum.   

Of course, everyone's insurance is different and YMMV depending on one's insurance policy.  

For more on Reaping the Rewards, check back every Friday for a new segment.

This is not financial nor healthcare advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Think Accumulation for a Successful Retirement

For me, the accumulation phase for retirement savings was from the twenties until my sixties.  

Twenties - This was the most difficult accumulation period.   During that decade, I bought a house and a car, which created monthly expenses.  I was also paying off my student loan.  My accumulation seemed to grow very, very slowly.

Thirties -  Accumulation was easier bit still seemed to grow slowly   I no longer had a student loan or car loan payment.  I was also able to refinance my mortgage from 12%, to 7%, to 5%.   In my early thirties, I was earning double my starting salary.  By late thirties, I was earning about 4 times my starting salary due to promotions.

Forties - This was out best accumulation time.   I was promoted again and my base salary by the end of my forties was 8 times my starting salary.  This was my peak earning years and as a result we had peak accumulation.

Fifties -  If I had not retired early at 49, this would have continued to be accumulation from wage income.   Part of our accumulation during this time was due to inheritances from our parents who passed away.  

Even with an income increases each decade, I continued to live the same lifestyle in my twenties and  thirties.   We did upgrade our lifestyle to a larger house and new cars in my forties.   However, we still lived below our means.    For example, we still live in the same house, drive the same cars after 20 years, and did our first purchase of a flat screen TV during our fifties.

Definitely, YMMV.  The actions that worked for us to accumulate enough for a successful retirement won't work for everyone.   

For more on Crossing Generations, check back every Thursday for a new segment.

This is not financial nor retirement advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Best, Good and Bad Personal Finance Choices

Successful personal finance is about choices, specifically making good choices.   How does one learn to make good or best choices? Experience.  How does one get experience? Bad choices.

The table below shows my opinion about some personal finance choices I've made.  The blue is what I have actually done in the past.  The green is what I do now or just before retiring. The black options I didn't ever do.

	Best, Good, Bad Options
Activity	Best	Good	Bad
Student Loan  Amount Borrowed	None	Less than expected  starting salary	100% of tuition, expenses room and board or exceeds starting salary
Credit Card Use	Pay current balance  ahead of due date	Pay entire balance on time	Pay the minimum  every month
Monthly Spending when I Was Working	Less than 80% of net pay	Less than 90% of net pay	Over 100% of net pay  in my first month

Did I learn from my experiences?   Yes, and I think I improved, especially in monthly spending.   For me the new choices let to financial results that were better.  YMMV. 

For more on The Practice of Personal Finance, check back every Wednesday for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Increase Savings, Avoid Living Large

To me, too many people try to be what others consider as financially successful, instead of being what makes them personally financially successful.  Social media and marketing convinces us we need more to be successful, which causes us to never feel successful, because we need more...the newest phone, the coolest car, the best house and dazzling vacations.

Personal finance success first depends on balancing income versus spending when starting out.  Next, personal finance success requires discipline to increase saving more than increasing spending as income grows.  Unfortunately, many people choose to increase spending only as their income increases, instead of saving more and are typically one or two paychecks away from financial disaster.

Don't let living large costs ruin a possible successful retirement.  Instead, choose making one's future self have a successful retirement.

A savings habit can help minimize living large costs that cause financial issues.   Simply, start by saving 10% of one's gross pay.  Put every raise into savings until 20% or more  of gross pay is reached.   Then make the savings automatic.  While the savings won't seem like much at first, before long one will have saved a year's pay.   Invest the savings in a total market or growth index fund.

For more on Ideas You Can Use, check back every Tuesday for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Become a Millionaire for Only $158.15/month

That's only $5.20 per day, less than the cost of a Starbucks latte.

No, this is not a scam.  Yes, it is possible with two assumptions.   First, the investment has average returns of 10% per year.   Second, the investment is held for 40 years, with all dividends and interest reinvested.  

The annual return is achievable since the S&P index has returned about 11% per year on average over the long term.  If one takes less risk with a 60/40 diversification of stocks and bonds, the return is about 7% a year and more funds need to be invested to reach $1M in 40 years.  If one takes even less risks and invest in CDs/Bonds for a 4%, significantly more funds are need.

	Invest to Become a Millionaire
Monthly (Daily) Contribution	Average Yearly Return	Total Paid	After 40 Years
$158.15 ($5.20)	10%	$75,912	$1,001,083
$381.00 ($12.53)	7%	$182,880	$1,000,053
$846.10 ($27.81)	4%	$405,150	$1,000,872

OK, what if one can only afford $158.15 a month.  The table below shows the impact on average annual returns on the number of years to reach a $1M.

	Invest to Become a Millionaire
Monthly (Daily) Contribution	Average Yearly Return	Total Paid	Years to Reach $1,000,000
$158.15 ($5.20)	10%	$75,912	40
$158.15 ($5.20)	7%	$182,880	52.1
$158.15 ($5.20)	4%	$405,150	77.5

OK, what if one can afford more than $158.20 a month.  The table shows the impact on contribution amount on the number of years to reach $1M.

	Invest to Become a Millionaire
Monthly (Daily) Contribution	Average Yearly Return	Total Paid	Years to Reach $1,000,000
$158.15 ($5.20)	10%	$75,912	40
$263.40 ($8.66)	10%	$110,628	35
$442.41 ($14.55)	10%	$159,300	30

Here's what I'm doing to enable my children to be millionaires on their own.  For my children's Roth IRAs, I'm investing or will invest $159 per month.   For the initial investment, I put $159 into 4 mutual funds/ETFs from Schwab: ETFs - SCHB (Total Market), SCHG (Large Cap Growth); Mutual Funds-SWPPX (S&P 500), SWLGX (Large Cap Growth).   I will monitor returns over the next few months and narrow down to one or two investment options for the future.  Also, based on the analysis above, I will increase the amount contributed when the market declines.

At this point, I am leaning towards the mutual funds, since I can invest an exact dollar amount of $159 each time, whereas I am required to invest in whole shares for the ETFs.

Disclosure: I am not compensated by Schwab for any mentions made in this post.

For more on Strategies and Plans, check back every Monday for a new segment.

This is not financial, saving, investing nor millionaire advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Spent All My Paycheck Before Next Payday

I ran out of money my first month of working, a few days before my first paycheck. 

When I started working, I was given a one month advance to cover living expenses, which I think was paid back with future paycheck deductions.   Back then, I spent on a cash basis since I didn't have a credit card yet.

I was paid at the end of the month.  With three days left in the month, I ran out of money.  No cash in my pocket.  Fortunately, I didn't have to pay any bills nor buy any essentials such as food or gas.  I was concerned but not worried yet. 

Although nothing bad happened,  I decided that I would manage my money better and never overspend my paycheck again.  One of my better personal finance decisions.

For more on New Beginnings, check back every Sunday for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Cash Strapped Millionaires

Here's one reason that millionaires with $1-2 million in net worth don't feel wealthy: they don't have much free cash.   

Most of their net worth is not liquid nor easily accessible.  On average 39% of their net worth is their home, as a result of significant appreciation since 2020 and 33% is in retirement accounts.  Only 17% is in liquid assets, which would be stocks, bonds and cash.  

Combine the above asset distribution debt servicing such as student loans, home mortgage, and car payments.   And don't forget daycare costs. Thus, most of their paycheck is already committed necessary expenses or debt service.  

A million isn't what is used to be 50 years ago.

For more on  Reflections and Musings, check back every Saturday for a new segment.

This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC

Taxes on Social Security Payments Should Be Eliminated

Contributions to Social Security were taxed before being withheld.  Until 1984, Social Security payments were not taxed.  In 1984, 8% of Social Security recipients paid federal income tax on the payments.   The thresholds for Social Security being taxed were set in 1984 and have not been adjusted for inflation. Today, 56% of recipients pay federal income tax on Social Security payments.

Two bills that have been reintroduced to eliminate taxes of Social Security: Senior Citizens Tax Elimination Act (H.R. 1040) and You Earned It, You Keep It Act.

For more on Reaping the Rewards, check back every Friday 

This is not financial, legislative, social security, tax nor retirement advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

Copyright © 2025 Achievement Catalyst, LLC